It seems obvious to me that Pepe Lobo is the great winner with the Cartagena Agreement, because this time he did not have to compromise on anything, and got what he wanted: the return of Honduras to the OAS.
Everything that Lobo promised was already fulfilled by the Honduras government.
All of this was accomplished through the mediation of President Hugo Chavez, confirming the influence of Chavez on Mel: the influence of a boss on his subordinate.
This agreement involves a change of strategy for President Chavez: there is a tacit recognition of the Lobo administration and a downplaying of the figure of Zelaya.
Chavez may prefer to negotiate with Lobo, who has the real power in Honduras, over Zelaya, who has repeatedly failed in his attempts to storm the power in Honduras, or perhaps, because of the riots in Africa, the Chavista dictatorship prefers to take a more cautious attitude.